MACRO RISK INTELLIGENCE · FX · RATES · COMMODITIES

Macro Risk Intelligence
for Position Sizing
and Regime Awareness

Most strategies fail not because they are wrong —
but because they are used in the wrong environment.

FractureOS measures how stable the market actually is before that becomes obvious in price.

REQUEST ACCESS → VIEW PERFORMANCE REPORT
208w
Historical Data
4 years of validated signals
4.38
Sharpe Ratio
vs 0.61 buy-and-hold
66.7%
Signal Accuracy
Confirmed ALERT signals, 5-day horizon
p=.039
Statistical Significance
Returns non-zero at 95% confidence

// THE PROBLEM

The environment matters more than the idea

At some point you start noticing something uncomfortable.

A trade can look completely reasonable. Clean setup. Logical macro view. No obvious extremes. And still fail very quickly.

At first it feels random. But if you go back and look carefully, those situations tend to cluster. They don't happen in isolation.

The environment was already unstable. It just wasn't visible in the usual tools.

Volatility reacts after the move. Positioning updates with a delay. Technical levels reflect the past.

Most losses don't come from wrong ideas.
They come from wrong environments.

So the actual question appears a bit differently.

Not "is this a good trade" — but "is this the kind of environment where this trade should exist at all."

In practice, that distinction is where a lot of drawdowns come from.


// WHAT FRACTUREOS IS

Measure the system, not just the outcome

FractureOS started from a simple idea: describe the market not through direction, but through its internal state.

Not as a single indicator. As a structure.

The system looks at multiple independent components simultaneously — rates, positioning, flows, macro signals, secondary effects that usually don't show up directly. Each behaves differently. Sometimes they're aligned. Sometimes they cancel each other out.

But occasionally they start building pressure together. That's usually where things break.

FractureOS aggregates these components into a single framework that reflects how stable or unstable the environment is at a given moment. Not perfectly. But consistently enough to be useful in practice.

Fed Policy Node
ECB Policy Node
Growth Differential
COT Positioning Stress
Geopolitical Risk Pulse
Credit Spread Signal
12 NODES
AGGREGATE
DEI SCORE
55.5
BUILDING STRESS
→ Risk state: elevated
→ Reduce position size
→ Monitor node drivers

// HOW IT'S USED

From intelligence to decision

In practice, the use is simpler than it sounds. Before, during, and after a trade — the system provides a consistent structural reference point.

USE CASE 01
Before entering a position
DEI low → full size
DEI mid → reduced size
DEI high → no exposure
USE CASE 02
During volatility build-up
Rising DEI → risk reduction
Node stress → identify drivers
Not because price moved. Because the conditions changed.
USE CASE 03
Post-trade analysis

After the trade, the system answers a question that's usually unclear:

Was the idea wrong — or was the environment not supportive?

Those are very different problems.

FractureOS is not a trading signal service. We do not provide buy/sell recommendations or investment advice. We provide structural risk intelligence to support your own decision-making process. All outputs are for informational purposes only.

// WHAT YOU GET

A set of tools built around one framework

FractureOS is not a single output. It's a modular system that grows with the instruments we add.

01 / DASHBOARD
Live Risk View
Live state of the system. You can see not just that something changed, but where the pressure is coming from.
  • DEI aggregate score
  • Node-by-node breakdown
  • Historical context overlay
  • Regime classification
02 / API
Structured Data Feed
If you already run a strategy, this becomes a layer on top. Not a replacement — an addition.
  • DEI score feed (30min updates)
  • Regime state alerts
  • Full 12-node breakdown
  • WebSocket real-time stream
03 / SIGNALS
Regime Alerts
Not directional. Contextual. Know when the environment is shifting before price confirms it.
  • Regime shift notifications
  • Structural stress alerts
  • Telegram integration
  • Weekly Decision Memo
// Currently covering EUR/USD · WTI · Gold · T-Notes — additional instruments in development

// VERIFIED CASE STUDY

EUR/USD parity break. Detected 48 hours early.

One example that stands out. September 2022. EUR/USD breaking parity.

At the time, most of the focus was on the move itself. But if you look slightly earlier, the structure was already stretched.

EVENT
Sept
2022
RISK SCORE
55.5
ALERT — 48H EARLY

Rate differentials were extended. Positioning was concentrated. Macro pressure was building in the background.

Nothing extreme individually. But together they created a fragile setup. When it finally moved, it moved fast.

Two days before EUR/USD broke parity, the FractureOS DEI score reached 55.5 — entering ALERT territory. Every major risk node was elevated simultaneously. Not a single indicator, but a convergence across the entire system.

REGIME SHIFT POSITIONING IMBALANCE FED/ECB DIVERGENCE GEOPOLITICAL STRESS CREDIT SPREAD WIDENING CROSS-ASSET RISK-OFF
OUTCOME
EUR/USD broke below parity. High-volatility downside continuation. The structural warning was actionable 48 hours before price confirmed it.

This kind of situation is not unique. It tends to repeat under similar structural conditions. That's the part the system tries to capture.


// WHO IT'S FOR

Built for practitioners who manage real risk

This is mainly relevant for people who already have a process. If the decision process already exists, this becomes a layer that helps adjust it.

Macro Hedge Funds
Teams running discretionary macro strategies across FX, rates and commodities. Need structural context before sizing into positions.
→ DEI as a pre-trade regime filter
→ Node breakdown for risk attribution
FX Traders & Desks
Active FX practitioners who understand that execution quality depends on market environment, not just trade direction.
→ Real-time regime awareness
→ Positioning extreme detection
Family Offices
Managing active exposure across asset classes. Need a systematic way to reduce risk during structurally fragile periods.
→ Automated watchdog alerts
→ Weekly structural memo
If there is no process, the value is limited. FractureOS augments existing decision frameworks — it does not replace them.

// WHY THIS IS DIFFERENT

Structure over reaction

Most tools look at the market from one angle. Price. Volatility. Positioning. Each is useful. But incomplete. Here the approach is different.

Traditional tools FractureOS
React to price movementMeasure structural conditions
Single indicators12-node multi-driver system
Direction focusEnvironment focus
Volatility confirms after the moveFragility detected before the move
What is happeningHow stable is the system producing it
Instead of asking "what is happening" — the question becomes "how stable is the system that produces these movements." It sounds subtle. In practice it changes how decisions are made.

// ABOUT

Why this exists

I've spent a long time working with different approaches to market analysis.

At some point it became clear that prediction alone doesn't solve the main problem. You can be right on direction and still lose money if the environment is unstable.

FractureOS came out of trying to formalize that observation. Not as a theory. As something usable in real decisions.

It's still evolving. New instruments are being added. The framework is being tested across different market conditions.

But the core idea has stayed the same: measure the system, not just the outcome.


// VALIDATED PERFORMANCE — 91 WEEKS

Statistical edge. Not narrative.

Full backtest 2024–2026. 91 weeks. S5 seasonal strategy.

Sharpe Ratio
2.00
vs 0.66 buy-and-hold, 2024–2026
Signal Win Rate
67.7%
S5 strategy, Q2 seasonal filter applied
Max Drawdown
2.4%
S5 strategy, 91 weeks backtested
DOWNLOAD FULL PERFORMANCE REPORT →

// PRICING

Three tiers. One methodology.

All plans include the core risk watchdog, automated alerts and weekly Decision Memo. No long-term commitment.

// BASIC
$1,000
/month
  • Risk dashboard — 4 instruments
  • Automated Telegram alerts
  • Weekly Decision Memo
  • 208-week historical data
  • Performance report access
  • REST API access
// PRO · MOST POPULAR
$2,000
/month
  • Everything in Basic
  • Momentum & velocity engine
  • Historical analogues (top-5)
  • Directional bias + confidence score
  • Seasonal signal overlay
  • Cross-instrument confluence
// ENTERPRISE
$3,000
/month
  • Everything in Pro
  • Full REST API (JWT auth)
  • WebSocket real-time stream
  • Full 12-node breakdown per request
  • Top-10 historical analogues
  • Custom integration support
→ First month available at founder pricing for qualified practitioners.
→ Free 2-week trial available in exchange for structured feedback.
// ACCESS
Access is currently limited.
Not because of exclusivity — but because the system is still being refined with a small number of users. If this way of looking at the market makes sense to you, request access below.
REQUEST ACCESS → SCHEDULE A WALKTHROUGH
Limited onboarding for early users · Response within 24 hours
// GET IN TOUCH

Request access or ask a question

Request a demo, ask about pricing, or describe your use case. We respond within 24 hours.